MOSCOW – The FIFA World Cup begins with a clash between two natural resource superpowers, Russia and Saudi Arabia. Optimists have labelled the contest the “gasico” but on the pitch the countries are footballing lightweights, the two worst-ranked teams in the tournament. Is this potentially the worst-quality World Cup opening match ever?
We analysed “elo rankings”, which score national teams according to their results over time and are weighted against the strength of opposition they faced. Focusing on the period from 1998, when the World Cup expanded in size from 24 to 32 teams (diluting the strength of the sides appearing at the tournament), we found that the next “worst” opening match-up was South Africa vs Mexico from 2010. South Africa became the only hosts not to progress past the opening group stage of a World Cup.
Indeed, there have been few worse pairings in any World Cup match. New Zealand’s game against Slovakia, also in 2010, takes that ignominious title. Though with the World Cup set to expand to 48 teams in 2026, this won’t last for ever. Still, the elo ratings suggest that, though Russia and Saudi Arabia are quantifiably terrible, they are qualitatively well-matched. This makes the result unpredictable. Just don’t expect a clásico.
